Human Nature - Biases

We need to recognize the biases we all have that affect our decisions. Many biases occur below our awareness.

Pleasure bias

• We favour things that are pleasurable over those that are not.

• We prefer pleasure over pain.

• Combat this bias by getting uncomfortable: Fasting.  Cold dousing. Push ups.

Confirmation bias

• We look for evidence that supports our favourable ideas and existing views.  

• This is easier than developing new ones.

Conviction bias

• Hold onto ideas stubbornly.  

• Old man views.  

• Black belt who has invested too much to change so rather than change, he becomes deeply entrenched in his views.  

Appearance bias

• Well dressed, fit, attractive.  

• Fancy car, nice house.  

• Educated.  

• Gives bias they are flawless or correct.  

Group bias

• We are social animals so we are motivated to share the views of the group in order to be insiders.  

• Martial artists, Liberals, Conservatives.  

• We feel pressure to support the group view or message.  

Blame bias

• Mistakes that are too painful to look at generate lots of excuses.  

• Fragile ego so blame it away rather than learn from the mistake.  

• The problem is, we repeat the mistake again.

Superiority bias

• Make more money.  Get a bigger house. Go to a better school.

• Well dressed, s/he must be the owner.  

• To have more is seen as superior.  

• Rather than ‘less is more’ mentality. 

An example from history that illustrates the negative consequences of biases is the Bay of Pigs Invasion in 1961. This event highlights how cognitive biases can lead to disastrous outcomes in decision-making.

The Bay of Pigs Invasion

The Bay of Pigs Invasion was a failed military invasion of Cuba by Cuban exiles sponsored by the U.S. government, aiming to overthrow Fidel Castro’s communist regime. The invasion took place in April 1961 during the presidency of John F. Kennedy.

Groupthink

A psychological phenomenon where the desire for harmony or conformity in a group results in irrational or dysfunctional decision-making.

Within Kennedy's administration, there was a strong tendency to maintain consensus and avoid conflict, leading to the suppression of dissenting opinions. This prevented critical analysis and debate on the viability of the invasion plan.

Overconfidence Bias

The tendency to overestimate one’s abilities, knowledge, and judgment.

The U.S. leadership, including the CIA, overestimated the capabilities of the Cuban exiles and underestimated Castro’s forces and popular support. This overconfidence led to insufficient planning and preparation for various contingencies.

Confirmation Bias

The tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information that confirms one’s preconceptions.

The planners of the invasion selectively gathered and interpreted intelligence that supported the success of the operation while ignoring or downplaying contrary evidence. Reports indicating strong support for Castro and the readiness of Cuban defenses were not adequately considered.

Fundamental Attribution Error

The tendency to attribute others’ behaviors to their character while attributing one’s own behavior to situational factors.

The U.S. planners attributed Castro’s rise and hold on power to his supposed personal charisma and dictatorship, underestimating the socio-economic and political factors that contributed to his support among the Cuban populace.

CThe invasion was quickly defeated by Castro’s forces, resulting in the capture or death of many of the invaders. The failed invasion was a significant embarrassment for the Kennedy administration and damaged U.S. credibility. Instead of weakening Castro, the invasion consolidated his power and increased anti-American sentiment in Cuba and Latin America. The failure heightened Cold War tensions, contributing to the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, which brought the world to the brink of nuclear war.

Lessons Learned

The Bay of Pigs Invasion serves as a powerful example of how biases can lead to flawed decision-making with severe negative consequences. It underscores the importance of:

• Encouraging open debate and critical thinking.

• Seeking diverse perspectives and dissenting opinions.

• Accurately assessing risks and preparing for potential failures.

• Remaining aware of and addressing cognitive biases in decision-making processes.

By learning from such historical examples, individuals and organizations can strive to make more informed and balanced decisions.